From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It was do or die for the yellow metal a couple of weeks ago.

Gold chose “do.”

Buyers sprang into action, defending a critical former support level while driving prices higher. 

That valiant effort may have only prolonged the inevitable: a period of sustained weakness.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not playing the role of a Debbie Downer this week.

I still believe gold is in the early innings of a new secular bull run.

Why?

It’s pretty simple. All we have to do is switch the denominator to any other global currency.

Gold has already broken out versus every currency in the world – except the US dollar. 

And that, folks, is the crux of the problem.

The US dollar!

Yes, overhead supply remains intact for these shiny rocks and their associated stocks. 

Demand for gold must absorb supply before we witness new all-time highs, no question.

I just can’t envision that happening if the dollar continues to rise – which it is.

Check out the overlay chart of gold futures and the US Dollar Index $DXY inverted:

I flip the DXY chart to...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’ve had the pleasure of driving cross country multiple times, covering every inch of I-10. 

I made so many memorable moments on those drives …

I pushed through white-out conditions in Kansas. (My brother had an appointment with the State Department in Washington D.C., and we couldn’t stop.)

I “accidentally” crossed into Juarez, Mexico, which turned into one helluva time!

And I picked up more than one speeding ticket on the reservation (highway patrol doesn’t play in Navajo country).

I somehow made it coast to coast every time.

While many details of those treks slip away with the years, I’ll always remember the Alamo.

I know, it’s funny. I didn’t even go inside.

To be clear, my memory of the Alamo has nothing to do with the historic battle or the revisionist histories that have been written and rewritten since.

Instead, I picture a meager fort in the twilight – nothing more. A truly humble beacon of strength.

The understated image resurfaces in my mind’s eye this week as I plan and plot the best way to trade gold.

As gold meets increased selling pressure...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is hanging on for dear life.

Rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar create formidable headwinds for the shiny yellow rock.

I remain optimistic for the entire precious metals space, but hope is not a viable trading strategy – especially if gold undercuts its 2011 highs.

Some gold bugs may find it difficult to accept, but gold’s a short if and when it decisively closes below its prior commodity supercycle peak.

And it’s trading back at those former highs today…

Let’s review the levels.

Check out the monthly candlestick chart of gold futures:

I understand the August candle is incomplete. It doesn’t bother me. 

I’m not analyzing the current month’s candlestick. Instead, the prior-cycle peak from 2011 holds my focus. 

The monthly chart simply provides the most precise depiction of that crucial level.

Notice gold has managed to hang tough – five months and counting –  since it reclaimed those critical former highs last March.

It retested those highs in May, June, and August, three of the last four months.

Bullish bias aside...

This is the video recording of our August 2nd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

This is the video recording of the July 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

This is the video recording of our July 5th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

This is the video recording of the June 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

This is the video recording of our June 5th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

Thursday morning I was in New York City chatting with Maria Bartiromo about the ongoing Bull Market in Stocks.

Maria and I have been talking about this topic pretty regularly since she looked at me like I was crazy last October.

A lot has happened since then as both the Nasdaq and S&P500 just closed out back to back months at the highest levels in a year.

The market got the sector rotation it needed as we entered 2023.

And now we're looking for that rotation back into those original leading sectors off the lows last summer.

I believe we already started to see it get going right after we finished up our conversation Thursday morning.

Here's the interview in full:

This is the video recording of the May 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

I was in New York City most of the week for the annual CMT Symposium.

On Wednesday afternoon I dropped by Fox Business to chat with Liz Claman about the ongoing bull market that is now on Month #11.

My point in the hit was that a lot of the focus seems to be on these tiny little irrelevant banks disappearing, instead of actual important companies with real market caps.

Just to put things in perspective, First Republic is worth less than a billion dollars. So that and zero may as well be the same thing.

Meanwhile, Microsoft Wednesday was up over $140 Billion in market cap overnight.

So if that's the case, why should anyone care about First Republic?

As long as the market doesn't care, I definitely don't.

Here's the interview in full:

First palladium, now platinum?

Platnuim broke out of an inverted head and shoulders pattern last week, printing fresh 52-week highs.

The bullish data points continue to roll in despite the waning strength in gold and silver.

Check it out!