Many key indexes have retested their 2021 highs following Trump's market crash.

Here's the S&P 500 $SPY revisiting its breakout level.

And here's the same story in the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ.

And similarly in the Dow Jones Industrial Average $DIA.

After market crashes, we often see sharp, aggressive countertrend moves. With the indexes now having fully retested their 2021 highs, this could be the point where we start seeing a notable rebound.

In other words, we've had the crash, and now I'm anticipating the sharp rebound.

As for where that will lead or whether Trump will back down—it’s tough to say. We can’t predict if we’re entering a more sustained bear market. But in the short term, a countertrend rally here seems to be a logical expectation.

After holding up for several weeks, many global markets are finally starting to feel the weight of the Trump tariffs.

What began as a U.S.-centric correction has now turned into broad, indiscriminate selling across markets and risk assets.

Financials and European markets had been showing some resilience amid the U.S. weakness — but that’s no longer the case.

Germany’s $EWG just broke down hard, failing to hold its long-term breakout in spectacular fashion.

Across Europe, more countries are now struggling to break out and hold key resistance levels.

After weeks of holding firm, the bias for Europe — and most global markets — has shifted sideways to lower.

Global markets have sold off in response to Trump's sweeping tariffs.

This is no longer just a regular dip in a bull market, it is turning into a significant cause for concern for more sustained weakness.

Two key industry groups to demonstrate this is housing $ITB, which has broken down and is now trending lower.

And semiconductors $SOX which has completed a major topping pattern.

Arguably the two most important industry groups have broken down, and are now in defined downtrends.

This isn't just a regular dip; unless we see risk assets take a significant rebound (and quickly), we're transitioning into a deeper correction that could last months, if not quarters.

Markets have sold off as Trump announced his sweeping tariffs to America's trading partners. There's certainly a lot of fast moving action hitting the tape and we're at a crossroads; does the market continue its selling or reverse on what was a monumental announcement?

While we certainly entertain these moves, the beauty of these rankings is that it adopts a longer-term horizon and smooths out the noise we're seeing this week.

More U.S. growth thematic ETFs are falling on the leaderboard, as technology breaks to new relative lows.

But despite this, a theme that's remained persistently strong is the video gaming and esports space. VanEck's $ESPO ETF, while pulling back, has exhibited fantastic relative strength in a market that's punished growth.

So long as ESPO is above its prior cycle highs near 80, this is an investment theme that remains a leader.

Technology $XLK is well into the red now as U.S. growth underperforms.

Most interestingly, Technology $XLK just broke down relative to the S&P 500 while Financials $XLF is still outperforming.

While the conditions in U.S. equities hasn't been favorable, it's not indiscriminately bearish. In other words, as technology underperforms, sectors like financials and communications are still holding in.

As investors find out more information on the Trump tariffs today; considering much of this recent money flow out of U.S. stocks has been driven by this rhetoric, it isn't outside the realm of possibility that tech bottoms here on a classic "sell the rumor, buy the news" event.

Of course, for now, the relative trend in tech is now down and we need to wait for confirmation of a trend reversal.

Large Cap Value $IWD has migrated to the top of the ETF Power Rankings for the US Indexes as growth continues to underperform.

Will growth continue underperforming?

This is the chart to look at it.

It's not over for growth until we see this ratio go below this line; I'd be surprised to not see growth begin outperforming as we hit this clear support level.

So while the trend has favored value for some time now, I wouldn't discount growth here.

The prevailing theme this year is that more international markets are challenging the dominance of the United States in equity performance.

This rotation has taken place for quite some time now and at least in the short-term it seems overextended.

A number of global ETFs are at big resistance levels and backed off last week. More importantly, as global markets stalled last week, this money did not flow back into the US.

This raises an important question; if international markets pause their gains, does this money flow into the U.S. markets (risk-on) or into safe haven assets (risk-off).

To demonstrate this point, here's a few examples.

Austria $EWO is near the top of the list and paused as it retested this resistance.

Singapore $EWS did the same.

And China $FXI is failing to hold this breakout.

And while international markets paused last week, the S&P 500 closed down 1.50% last week.

Not great.

It's clear that a structural shift is taking place here.

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The key theme here is the relentless strength out of the precious metal ETFs.

You can see below how they're clearly inhabiting the dark green.

With Silver looking like it's about to explode higher, this theme remains a no brainer until these trends can shift.

Meanwhile, software stocks - which have been a historical area of outperformance in the U.S. markets - have weakened to red territory.

This comes as growth has given up its leadership as money has rotated into prior laggards.

Just check out how Software $IGV has fallen into a downtrend.

Compare this with the relentless bid in the gold and silver miners - it's night and day.

There is so much alpha in the precious metals space right now.

The commodity supercycle is in motion, and the biggest opportunities are still ahead. JC and Jason nailed the gold trade last year — now they’re tracking the next wave. You can catch the replay to a recent live gold strategy call to see how they’re positioning.

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We're seeing more defensive sectors climb the leaderboard as the outlook for the U.S. markets weakens.

Perhaps an element of interest is to consider the areas of the market with the lowest overall correlation to macro conditions. Areas like Energy $XLE and Utilities $XLU are sporting the lowest correlation, with XLE not being correlated at all to the broader movements in the S&P 500.

This data is shown in the chart below.

For nimble traders and investors, there are still opportunities, albeit more difficult in a tape like this.

By focusing on low correlated areas of the market, it can reduce our overall risk in an uncertain market environment.

The U.S. markets have rebounded after reports the White House is easing their position on tariffs.

Most importantly is that this news has provided fertile grounds to build a new rally, and with the S&P 500 back above a key level of support the bias has shifted to a more optimistic one.

While value has climbed to the top of the rankings in recent weeks, we could see growth mobilize up the ladder as we see the trends that have persisted over the last month mean revert.

In other words, the short-term outlook has improved and it's in favor of growth right now.

Yesterday, Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos went live to discuss the screaming hot insider transactions hitting the tape as markets rebounded.

You want to know what the best insiders are buying? Click here to see the...

The S&P 500 continues slipping in the power rankings as long-term trends shift in favor of international markets.

This transition is clear in the S&P 500’s shift from green to red—signaling weakening relative strength.

We’ve highlighted this rotation for some time.

Two key questions arise from this:

• Will international markets outperform the U.S. over the long term
• Which leads in the short term?

Last week, money rotated back into the U.S., with the S&P 500 bouncing, albeit modestly. Further, the ratio between the two bumping into this resistance zone could signal further short-term strength for U.S. equities.

A pause in the capital exodus out of the States wouldn’t be surprising—many trends, including Gold, Bitcoin, and growth stocks, appear exhausted for now.

This week, we want to be on the lookout to see if money continues its short-term rotation out of global and back into the States. If so, it could set the stage for the next few months as international digest their gains.

In that tape, we could see some catch-up trades emerge in the...

Gold...

It's the hottest asset in town and it's smoking the U.S. markets in 2025. While the S&P is down 3%, Gold is up 14% and the Gold mining companies $GDX are up double that of 28%.

While this Gold trend has now certainly deserved a pause, the longer-term outlook is still decisively bullish.

Take a look at the Gold Miners ETF $GDX, which like all the precious metal mining funds is at the top of our list today. It's in the process of breaking out of a nearly five year base.

So long as GDX is above 44, the bias is to the upside for this group.