Today's number is... 27%

Only 27% of S&P 500 sectors are currently above their 50-day moving average.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The red line in the top panel shows the 50-day moving average of the S&P 500 index.
• The black line in the bottom panel shows the percentage of S&P 500 sectors above their 50-day Average.

The Takeaway: As of yesterday's close, only 27% of S&P 500 sectors are currently trading above their 50-day moving average… In short, this breadth reading needs to improve sooner rather than later, as the S&P 500 typically faces challenges when the majority of sectors are below their 50-day moving averages. 

The 10% correction we experienced in late February into early March caused some damage to the intermediate trend. However, over the past seven trading days, we have seen a resurgence of bullish activity, with the S&P 500 index climbing over 4%. While...

Today's number is... 10

S&P 500’s price is currently trading under its 10-month moving average.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line is the S&P 500 index price.
• The red line is the 10-month moving average of the S&P 500 index price.
• The gray lines highlight when the price is above the 10-month moving average.

The Takeaway: With just six trading days left in the month, there's one model I'm paying close attention to. The bulls need to work hard to push the S&P 500 price back above its 10-month moving average. At the moment, the S&P 500 is 1.7% below this moving average. If the price stays below it, this could create challenges for stocks.

I have done the math… Take a look at the table on the chart.

If you've been following me for some time, you know that I like to know what type of market environment we’re in. One of the simplest strategies I use for assessing the longer-term environment is: If...

Today's number is... 12

The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index just closed at fresh 12-year highs.

Here’s the chart:

The Takeaway: The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index, an index of thirty precious metal mining companies traded on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, closed yesterday at a fresh 12-year high.

This base-on-base breakout in the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index suggests the path of least resistance is higher for precious metals.

100% of the stocks in the index are above their 50-day moving average.

80% are above their 200-day moving average.

If you didn't know already, we’re in the midst of a serious gold rush.

There is nothing bearish about this for precious metal stocks! 

Are you buying precious metal stocks here?

Let me know!

Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator...

Today's number is... 1

Out of the seven global regions I track, only one is negative year-to-date, and that is the United States.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• Each line represents a different global region's year-to-date performance.
  • Green lines represent global regions that have a positive year-to-date performance.
  • Red lines represent global regions that have a negative year-to-date performance.
  • The black line shows the year-to-date performance of the All Country World Index.

The Takeaway: The global leadership has shifted in 2025.

In 2024, the United States was the leading region with an impressive return of 24%, while Europe Ex-UK was the worst region which lagged behind with only a 0.9% yearly return.

However, in the 52 trading days of 2025, Europe Ex-UK has emerged as the current leader, posting an impressive year-to-date return of 19% so far. In contrast, the United States is underperforming every region among the seven I track and is the only region to...

Today's number is... 27%

Global breadth is expanding in 2025... NOT narrowing… Over 27% of world markets have made 52-week highs in the past two weeks.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the MSCI All Country World index price.
• The green line in the bottom panel represents the percentage of world markets making 52-week highs over the past two weeks.
• The red line in the bottom panel represents the percentage of world markets making 52-week lows over the past two weeks.

The Takeaway: If you want to know where leadership in the markets has shifted too since weakness emerged in the US, look no further than the rest of the world. 

Global market breadth is improving rather than deteriorating, indicating that there is underlying strength in international markets, potentially presenting us with opportunities. However, many US investors are missing out on these because of a home-country bias and a sprinkle of recency bias. (...

Today's number is... 90%

The S&P 500 has just posted back-to-back days of 90% or more advancing issues.

Here’s the chart:

Here’s a bonus table that highlights the S&P 500’s forward returns following back-to-back days of 90% advancing issues:

The Takeaway: Back-to-back days with 90% of advancing issues in the S&P 500 don't happen too often. This signal indicates that the bulls are still in the game! Since 2008, this has only happened nine times, and yesterday marked the tenth occurrence.

When we analyze the data, we see that the short term might be a bit choppy. However, as we know, volatility can lead to big moves in either direction. Historically, these large swings tend to cluster around the bottom points of market corrections.

On a positive note, when we look one year after this signal, we find that 88.9% of the occurrences have resulted in positive returns, with an average gain of over 16%. 

Is this the first sign of a tailwind for the Bulls? Maybe…

I will be closely monitoring whether the bulls can maintain their recent leadership...

Today's number is... 16

The relative ratio of the World Ex-US index versus the S&P 500 is on the verge of breaking out of a 16-year downtrend.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line shows the relative ratio of World Ex-US versus the S&P 500 Index.

The Takeaway: The US has been outperforming the rest of the world for a long time. However, since the beginning of the year, the ratio of the World Ex-US index versus the S&P 500 has been ripping higher and is now on the verge of breaking a 16-year downtrend.

Let me break down the favorable changes I have seen happen to this ratio over the past 3 months: 

• The ratio is now above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
• The slope of the 50-day moving average is trending upward.
• The RSI is above 80, the highest RSI reading this ratio has ever reached.

This is not enough evidence to confirm a trend change. So, for me to confirm that the trend has shifted in favor of the World Ex-US, I need to see the following:...

Today's number is... 10%

The S&P 500 has now experienced a 10% correction.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The gray bars in the second panel are the number of days prior to the start of a 5% correction.
• The yellow bars in the third panel are the number of days prior to the start of a 10% correction.
• The red bars in the fourth panel are the number of days prior to the start of a 20% correction.

The Takeaway: “Not every crack becomes a gorge; not every gorge becomes a chasm. However, every chasm starts from a crack.” - Willie Delwiche

It was only last week I wrote a daily number note that the S&P 500 had a...

Today's number is... 100%

Whether you're looking at short, intermediate, or long-term trends, 100% of the major indices are currently trading below their key moving averages.

Here’s the table:

Let's break down what the table shows:

The first column of the table lists several major indexes. Each subsequent column represents a different moving average, ranging from the 5-day average to the 200-day average. A green box indicates that the index price is above the particular moving average, and a red box shows that the index price is below that moving average.

The Takeaway: The way I learned it was not to fight the trend… Also, nothing good happens when price is below moving averages.

And right now, all I can see is red... Every major index is below its 5-day moving average all the way to its 200-day moving average.

When prices fall below their moving averages, they are not in uptrends. They may not necessarily be in downtrends, but they certainly are not trending higher.

If stocks continue to decline, uptrends cannot persist....

Today's number is... -2.3%

The average stock in the S&P 500 has dropped by -2.3% year-to-date.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The gray bar illustrates the average stock in the S&P 500 year-to-date return.
• The green and red bars represent the average year-to-date stock returns by sector for the S&P 500.

The Takeaway: In just 14 trading days, the S&P 500 has declined by 9.31% from its all-time highs and is now down 5.26% year-to-date. Along with this correction, the average stock in the S&P 500 is currently showing a negative year-to-date return - which is down -2.3%.

Given the recent increase in market volatility, there are still pockets of strength, with 217 stocks in the S&P 500 outperforming the index with a positive return year-to-date.

However, most of these outperforming stocks come from sectors typically categorized as defensive. These defensive sectors are where money rotates into when stocks are under...

Today's number is... 5,667

The Bears have made a significant move, pushing the S&P 500 below the key level of 5,667, which is the highs from July 2024.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black candlesticks in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The green and red line in the bottom panel is the Momentum Regime (Daily RSI).
  • In a bullish regime, the RSI often exceeds 70 during rallies and finds support around 35-40 during corrections. In a bearish regime, it drops below 30 during sell-offs and doesn't reach overbought levels in counter-trend rallies.

The Takeaway: Over the past few months, I've been sharing my bull market checklist, emphasizing the importance of the 5,667 level in the S&P 500 for the bullish trend. However, after yesterday's trading, the bears have pushed the S&P 500 below this key level. 

Not only was this price level breached, but the S&P 500 also fell below its 200-day moving average, and the momentum shifted to a bearish regime...

Today's number is... 81%

Global breadth continues to expand, particularly within Developed Markets, as 81% of the 22 developed markets I track are now above their 200-day moving average.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the developed markets index.
• The black line in the lower panel shows the percentage of developed markets above their 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: At present, 81% of developed markets are trading above their 200-day moving average, the highest level we have seen this year. This is particularly significant given the ongoing selling pressure in the S&P 500, which has just recorded its third consecutive week of declines.

US investors have benefited from their tendency to favor domestic markets over the past decade. However, this trend could be on the verge of changing, with the relative strength of US markets diminishing while Europe and other developed markets are beginning to take the lead. This might be the moment...