This is the video recording of the February 2024 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold’s beginning to attract some attention.

Not because it was shooting higher but because it kept trading while most respectable markets closed in observance of Presidents Day.

US stocks, grains, and other god-fearing commodities did not trade. So investors needed something to talk about other than Bitcoin. 

But as gold stole the headlines, no one was talking about platinum.

I like that platinum isn’t attracting too many eyeballs right now.

Here’s why…

Platinum futures are carving out a potential multi-year reversal pattern.

A series of former highs (the 2021, 2022, and 2023 peaks) mark a critical area of overhead supply and our breakout level at approximately 1,140.

But no one seems to care – probably because price is trading well below a reasonable risk level. 

Precious metals – not just gold and silver – are a range-bound mess at best. Yet glimmers of hope lie within platinum’s sideways chop.

Momentum (14-week RSI) is oscillating within a bullish regime. Price is also holding above the 2022 and 2023 lows.

I understand if those data points...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’m fed up with precious metals. 

I’m tired of all the failed breakouts and the sideways chop.

So, please, spare me the silver-surfer stories about undervalued silver or how it will outperform gold 16-to-1 during the next bull run. 

I’m tired of it – all of it!

But the diehard gold bugs continue to rally the troops – and maybe they’re on to something.

After all, gold is trading less than a hundred bucks from its all-time high. Is there still a chance for a clean breakout soon?

Let’s take a cold, hard look…

Check out gold’s four-year base:

I can’t lie: This is the type of base that gets me out of bed in the morning.

It’s a classic inverted head-and-shoulders with an abbreviated right shoulder. It oozes demand!

Plus, momentum is in a bullish regime. This thing looks ready to rip! 

But I’m over it.

Funny how that works. The markets are here to test us, causing maximum pain whenever possible.

So is the market just wearing me down?

Gold futures are coiling within a well-defined symmetrical triangle just below a...

This is the video recording of our February 5th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

If silver doesn’t come to play, precious metals won’t win the day.

Gold’s resilience has been impressive lately, especially as its two main headwinds – the US dollar and real yields – catch higher. 

But while all eyes are following gold as it coils just below all-time highs, I’m tracking silver. Because gold’s doggedness is all for naught if silver breaks down.

Check out the iShares Silver Trust ETF $SLV retesting a critical former support level at approximately 20.50:

Perhaps it’s not the cleanest level. 

Nevertheless, plenty of price memory exists at this shelf of former lows. If SLV undercuts those former lows, precious metals will fall under increased selling pressure.

Gold futures will break down below 2,000. The Gold Miners ETF $GDX will fade below 30. And the handful of breakouts we’ve witnessed over the past few months will fail.

Plus, the silver-to-gold ratio will likely post a fresh 52-week low:

It’s another breakdown gold bugs prefer to avoid.

Silver dropping relative to gold signals a low turnout as investors are being rewarded...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious metal charts aren’t painting a bullish picture for investors.

Silver is underperforming gold. The Gold Miners ETF $GDX is posting new all-time lows versus the broader market. And everywhere you look, individual gold mining stocks are breaking down.

Well, not all mining stocks. One chart continues to fly high…

Check out Buenaventura S.A.A. $BVN:

BVN has gained over 70% since bouncing off last month’s lows, slicing through our initial and secondary targets. 

Now, it’s coiling in a potential bullish flag just above our risk level. 

The pennant or flag is a continuation pattern by nature, often resolving in the direction of the underlying trend.

My bias points higher toward 20, given the preceding rally. But I can’t hold BVN if it slips below 14.25. That’s our line in the sand.

If this potential bull flag fails, I imagine precious metals are a “no-touch” across the board.

The Harmony Gold Mining $HMY and Eldorado Gold $EGO breakouts likely fail in that environment. And the corrections in the bellwethers – Franco Nevada $FNV...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

First, gold failed to hold its breakout to new all-time highs.

Then, the silver-to-gold ratio undercut a critical shelf of former lows.

Now, the Gold Miners ETF $GDX is printing a new all-time low versus the broader market!

Is there any sane reason to bet on the miners right now?

Let’s take a look…

Check out GDX relative to the S&P 500 ETF $SPY: 

If precious metals are in a bull market, the stocks that benefit the most in that environment are not making new all-time relative lows versus the broader market.

And if the new all-time relative low isn’t enough, the components of the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index cover it:

Only one – Eldorado Gold $EGO – out of the 30 stocks in the index did not print a fresh four-week low last week.

Ugly!

Yet plenty of gold mining stocks continue to carve out bullish reversal formations despite the broad near-term weakness.

Orla Mining $ORLA stands out:

ORLA is forming a potential inverted head and shoulder pattern as the 14-day RSI posts a bullish divergence.

This is the video recording of the January 2024 Mid-month Conference Call.