Credit spreads have tightened a good deal since October.

I can't help but think this is just more classic bull market behavior.

As the major US equity indices have been rallying into year end, we've seen confirmation out of a number of credit ratios we track to gauge risk appetite within fixed income markets. Specifically, the the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF $HYG is trading at 52-week highs relative to the iShares 3-7yr Treasury Bond ETF $IEI.

This ratio ultimately gives us an inverted chart of credit spreads. Check it out:

Notice how both the S&P 500 and the HYG/IEI ratio are pressing back through their summer highs. 

It's hard to have a bull market in equities if the bond market is positioning defensively. Think about it; the players in the market with the deepest pockets require an incredible amount of liquidity.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Bond investors must feel like it’s their lucky day.

Long-duration bonds are reaching new multi-month highs!

It finally looks as if a tactical bounce is underway for these safe havens-turned-risk assets…

The Treasury Bond ETF $TLT is coming off extreme oversold readings on the 14-day RSI, highlighted in the lower pane:

Over the past two years, oversold conditions at these levels have coincided with near-term bottoms for long-duration bonds.

Based on the chart, TLT looks poised for a mean-reverting rally.

Let’s zoom in…

Check out the daily chart carving out a potential six-week reversal formation:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What a wild broad-market reversal yesterday!

Powell supposedly stated the obvious or blurted out what was on everyone’s mind. I don’t know. I haven’t watched the video or reviewed yesterday’s treasury auction. 

And I won’t.

I’m more interested in the “what,” not the “why,” as the former has proven far more valuable for navigating markets.

Nevertheless, the message is clear: no one wants to buy bonds. 

It makes sense to me…

Check out 30-year T-Bond futures:

Long-duration bonds are in a clear downtrend, stair-stepping lower.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The market barely reacted Wednesday afternoon following Powell’s remarks, cooking up a big, fat nothing burger for investors.

Market participants took the decision to leave rates untouched in stride. After all, the pause in the hiking cycle was the expected outcome. Since investors already pegged the Fed, the valuable information hung on Powell’s words or forward guidance.

Yet judging by today’s performance, it appears the market just needed a little time to marinate. 

Yesterday’s failed reaction has given way to a delayed response as long-duration bonds scream higher. 

But before we get ahead of ourselves and rush out to buy the bond market bottom, let’s check the charts…

First, the monthly 10-year T-note chart:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s beginning to feel an awful lot like 2022.

Rates and the dollar are on pause, bonds can’t stop falling, and the major equity indexes are violating critical support levels.

But the 2s10s spread raised serious questions this week as it hit fresh 52-week highs. 

So, is the market environment changing?

Let’s find out…

Check out the 2s10s spread challenging zero from below:

An inverted yield curve (widely measured by the 2s10s and 3mo.-10yr. spreads) has cast a pall over capital markets, promising an economic recession for over a year. Yet the US economy remains strong.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Investors navigate a market of stocks, not a “stock market.”

Equity indexes slide, and US treasuries collapse against a rapid rise in interest rates. Unfortunately for the bulls, the charts show no signs of an imminent change in these underlying trends. 

That’s the environment, and there’s no use fighting it.

Have no fear: We can still lean into market areas that enjoy a rising rate environment, mainly energy.

Here’s the US 30-year yield breaking to its highest level since the summer of ‘07:

Rising rates are the market’s golden thread.

Owning the stock market averages will prove difficult as long as yields press higher.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Borrowing costs are increasing, and US Treasuries are tanking – again. 

Everyone knows it. Even my therapist commented on interest rates and the “terrible” economy.

The 30-year T-bond has hit our initial target. And the 10-year is within striking distance. 

So much for limited downside risk for the bond market. Perhaps the call for a 5.25 print on the 10-year yield by Christmas wasn’t aggressive at all.

But elevated yields aren’t the problem…

And I don’t care about the economy when it comes to market speculation.

Remember, we don’t trade the economy. We trade the markets or – more precisely – price.

Interest rates hung around decade highs earlier this year while the Nasdaq 100 enjoyed its best first half since its inception.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stocks and bonds look vulnerable right now. 

US T-bonds are sliding to fresh decade lows. The S&P 500 completed a three-month top last week.  And the Nasdaq 100 is on the verge of doing the same. 

Those summer highs are receding into the collective memory bank, replaced by new lows and growing unease. Sellers are out in full force.

But instead of allowing the near-term selling pressure and overall choppy conditions to throw us off balance, let’s focus on the one underlying trend tying this market together…

Rising interest rates!

Check out the commodity-bond ratio overlaid with US 30-year yield $TYX:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Searching for trending markets?

Look no further than US treasury bonds!

Bonds across the curve are skidding to fresh contract lows as interest rates have a one-track mind…

Higher!

Check out the US 10-year yield posting fresh sixteen-year highs:

Not to be outdone, the 2-year yield just registered its highest level in seventeen years.

Interest rates across the curve are breaking to decade-plus highs in what has become a foot race.

It’s clear that the rising rate environment remains alive and well. An inverted yield curve keeps score, reminding us that shorter-duration yields are winning. 

But I honestly don’t care what area of the curve is leading. 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Markets fluctuate to a relentless beat driven by fear, greed, and an incessant newsfeed.

Sometimes, they trend. 

But, more often than not, they churn sideways.

Unsurprisingly, “sideways” best describes most markets today.

The S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have gone nowhere in three months. 

Regardless, one uptrend remains intact…

The coordinated rise in the US dollar and interest rates.

Check out the overlay chart of the 10-year US Treasury yield $TNX and the US Dollar Index $DXY with a 21-day rolling correlation in the lower pane:

US yields and the dollar have been in near-perfect harmony since the Fed began raising interest rates last year.

Sure, they briefly fell out of step. But the two found their groove in early July.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Yields are rising worldwide. 

US treasuries continue to fall after a brief pullback in price. 

Now, Chinese government bonds are pressing toward fresh lows.

Sovereign debt epitomizes downside risk. And Chinese bonds are on the cusp of a significant breakdown – a breakdown that spells more trouble for global bond investors.

Check out the VanEck China Bond ETF $CBON:

CBON aims to track the ChinaBond China High Quality Index (debt mainly issued by the People’s Bank of China). And like US treasuries, Chinese government bonds are flirting with fresh multi-year lows.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

US Treasuries have stopped falling – for the moment.

But it’s a mixed bag.

Short setups for long-duration bonds remain in play despite pullbacks underway, while the shorter end of the curve never managed to break down.

It’s messy.

So, let’s run through the US Treasury futures for an updated read on the bond market.

First up is the 30-year T-bond:

The 30-year has broken below a shelf of former lows at approximately 123. It’s a short as long as it’s below that level with a measured target of 113’15.

But the 30-year is finding support at last year’s lows, bouncing higher toward our line in the sand.