US treasuries finished 2023 with a bang, hitting our initial targets before Christmas.
But the long-bond trade is losing its luster.
Resistance is now coming into play as the bond market catches its breath…
Check out the US Treasury Bond ETF $TLT with a 200-day simple moving average:
I’m not a big fan of moving averages. I don’t like how they distract from price and create extra noise on the charts.
Regardless, many market participants track the long-term moving average. Bond bulls are shouting their battle cries as TLT peaks its head back above the 200-day mark.
So, is it time to get long bonds?
No!
The 200-day moving average is still sloping downward when we take a step back with a weekly chart:
US T-bonds remain in a structural downtrend. Plus,...
JC asked me how far I thought interest rates would pull back during a recent internal meeting.
The question caught me off guard since I trade bonds, not interest rates. I know my bond trade targets off the top of my head, but not the corresponding rate levels.
As soon as the call ended, I applied Fibonacci analysis to the 30- and 10-year yields…
The 3.50 level marks a logical area for the 30-year yield to stop falling.
That level coincides with a shelf of former lows and a critical retracement level covering the rally off the 2020 low.
The similar level for the 10-year yield stands at 3.25:
Whether rates pull back to these retracement levels is anyone’s guess.
Our long US Treasury trades are finally working. And investors are reaching for high-yield debt.
On the surface, it’s a positive shift for the hardest-hit markets in 2022.
But it also sends a clear message to stock market investors…
Buy!
Credit spreads are contracting as the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF $HYG trades at fresh 52-week highs relative to the iShares 3-7yr Treasury Bond ETF $IEI:
Credit spreads have tightened a good deal since October.
I can't help but think this is just more classic bull market behavior.
As the major US equity indices have been rallying into year end, we've seen confirmation out of a number of credit ratios we track to gauge risk appetite within fixed income markets. Specifically, the the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF $HYG is trading at 52-week highs relative to the iShares 3-7yr Treasury Bond ETF $IEI.
This ratio ultimately gives us an inverted chart of credit spreads. Check it out:
Notice how both the S&P 500 and the HYG/IEI ratio are pressing back through their summer highs.
It's hard to have a bull market in equities if the bond market is positioning defensively. Think about it; the players in the market with the deepest pockets require an incredible amount of liquidity.
And they're not going to get that liquidity in small-cap stocks.
And most of the time, they're not even getting enough in large-caps.
Bond investors must feel like it’s their lucky day.
Long-duration bonds are reaching new multi-month highs!
It finally looks as if a tactical bounce is underway for these safe havens-turned-risk assets…
The Treasury Bond ETF $TLT is coming off extreme oversold readings on the 14-day RSI, highlighted in the lower pane:
Over the past two years, oversold conditions at these levels have coincided with near-term bottoms for long-duration bonds.
Based on the chart, TLT looks poised for a mean-reverting rally.
Let’s zoom in…
Check out the daily chart carving out a potential six-week reversal formation:
I like trading TLT from the long side toward 99 -- but only if it holds above the October pivot high at approximately 88.25. That’s the line in the sand.
All bets are off if it slips below those former highs.
Powell supposedly stated the obvious or blurted out what was on everyone’s mind. I don’t know. I haven’t watched the video or reviewed yesterday’s treasury auction.
And I won’t.
I’m more interested in the “what,” not the “why,” as the former has proven far more valuable for navigating markets.
The market barely reacted Wednesday afternoon following Powell’s remarks, cooking up a big, fat nothing burger for investors.
Market participants took the decision to leave rates untouched in stride. After all, the pause in the hiking cycle was the expected outcome. Since investors already pegged the Fed, the valuable information hung on Powell’s words or forward guidance.
Yet judging by today’s performance, it appears the market just needed a little time to marinate.
Yesterday’s failed reaction has given way to a delayed response as long-duration bonds scream higher.
But before we get ahead of ourselves and rush out to buy the bond market bottom, let’s check the charts…
First, the monthly 10-year T-note chart:
JC broke it down last night in his monthly strategy session. Reviewing monthly candlestick charts sits atop our list of best practices, forcing us to reconnect with the underlying...
Check out the 2s10s spread challenging zero from below:
An inverted yield curve (widely measured by the 2s10s and 3mo.-10yr. spreads) has cast a pall over capital markets, promising an economic recession for over a year. Yet the US economy remains strong.
The curve is now flattening to levels not witnessed since the summer of 2022.
Perhaps it will continue to steepen in the coming months. On the other hand, this could be nothing more...
Investors navigate a market of stocks, not a “stock market.”
Equity indexes slide, and US treasuries collapse against a rapid rise in interest rates. Unfortunately for the bulls, the charts show no signs of an imminent change in these underlying trends.
That’s the environment, and there’s no use fighting it.
Have no fear: We can still lean into market areas that enjoy a rising rate environment, mainly energy.
Here’s the US 30-year yield breaking to its highest level since the summer of ‘07:
US T-bonds are sliding to fresh decade lows. The S&P 500 completed a three-month top last week. And the Nasdaq 100 is on the verge of doing the same.
Those summer highs are receding into the collective memory bank, replaced by new lows and growing unease. Sellers are out in full force.
But instead of allowing the near-term selling pressure and overall choppy conditions to throw us off balance, let’s focus on the one underlying trend tying this market together…