One of the most reliable signals of market stress isn’t in the headlines—it’s in swap spreads.

Swap spreads measure the difference between what banks pay to swap interest rates (SOFR) and what the U.S. government pays to borrow (Treasuries). When that spread collapses, like it just did, something’s breaking.

• In 2008, swap spreads collapsed before Lehman.
• In March 2020, they broke again when the Treasury market froze.

Both times, the Fed stepped in.

This week, the 30-year swap spread hit a record low last week. Translation? Dealers are under pressure. Liquidity is vanishing.

Chart from Kevin Muir from The Macro Tourist

Here’s the real story:

Pension funds use swaps to hedge rates while keeping cash free for private investments. Banks hedge those swaps by buying Treasuries—but capital requirements limit how...

Why? Because tariffs create immediate uncertainty. They slow growth, tighten financial conditions, and drive a flight to safety — all of which are bond bullish in the short term. We’ve seen this playbook before: geopolitical tension or trade stress leads to a bid for duration.

The chart’s not there yet — but it’s starting to shape up. Bonds still have work to do before we can talk new 52-week highs. For $TLT, that means clearing this massive base and getting above 100.40 with some momentum behind it. That’s the line in the sand. Get through that, and the squeeze could start to build.

But here’s the catch — the long-term impact is different.

Tariffs raise input costs. They squeeze supply chains. And they don’t reduce demand — they just make things more expensive. Over time, that feeds into inflation. So while bonds may catch a near-term bid on fears of economic slowdown, the structural risk is higher inflation down the road.

It’s the classic setup: short-term deflationary shock, long-term inflationary shift.

So yes — bonds could break out. But if this pressure...

If global growth is going to pick up, you’ll likely see it first in the copper to gold ratio. 

Historically, it moves in lockstep with the 10 year yield — and right now, there’s a glaring gap. If that gap closes, copper’s about to get loud.

And it’s already whispering.

Copper just hit a 52 week high.

International stocks are starting to hum.

Momentum always shows up quietly before it slams the door.

Here’s the kicker: global growth isn’t being driven by the usual suspects. It’s not the U.S. or Europe. It’s the rest of the world — emerging market and developing economies are growing at 4.2%, more than double the 1.8% of advanced economies. 

The world is moving at 3.2%, and the heavy lifting is coming from places most investors still ignore.

That matters. Because copper doesn’t just track growth — it sniffs it out early. And right now, it smells something big.

(TLDR) Why we think copper moves higher from here:

• Copper just broke out to a new 52 week high
• International equities are gaining momentum alongside it
• The...

Bonds are telling the story of this market, and if you’re not listening you’re already behind! 

Growth, inflation, liquidity – it’s all written in the bond market’s moves, making bonds the most critical tool for any trader. 

Period. 

The 2 year US Treasury yield exploded higher the moment the Fed started cutting rates – a massive tell that expectations shifted on a dime, as the chart clearly shows. 

Now that same yield has flipped direction and is plunging lower. You know what that means: liquidity could start flooding the system once again.

When liquidity increases, money doesn’t sit still – it moves fast. 

We’re watching capital rip through the market, rotating in to international stocks like it’s got something to prove. 

The Fed might think they’re steering the ship with their rate tweaks, but the bond market says otherwise. 

It’s the bond market that leads the way – always has, always will.

So here’s the million dollar question: will we...

Look, I get it—this topic comes up again and again, and it can be a bit of a head scratcher.

I keep saying it: inflation is sticky, and the dollar is rolling over.

Yet people ask, "How does that work with a 75% rolling correlation between the dollar and yields recently?"

And that’s a valid question.

Check out this chart—it’s a visual reminder that correlations aren’t set in stone. There are times when the numbers move in harmony and other moments when the link just falls apart.
 

Markets evolve, and so do these relationships.

Here’s the honest truth: correlations are fickle by nature. They can look tight one minute and then unravel the next.

Relying on a strong historical link is like betting on a coin toss coming up heads every time—it’s risky and can easily lead you astray.

If you want to understand where commodity prices are headed, look at the yield curve.

Every major commodity bull market has been preceded by a steepening yield curve—every single one.

📈 When the yield curve bottoms and starts steepening, commodities follow.
 

Look at the last cycle:

• The commodity index bottomed when the yield curve hit its lowest point.
• When the yield curve flipped positive for the first time since 2022, commodities started trending higher.

It’s not magic—it’s liquidity and capital flows. When short-term rates fall relative to long-term rates, the market starts pricing in higher growth and inflation expectations, and commodities are the first to respond.

This is exactly why we’re positioned the way we are. Commodities don’t move in isolation—...

For the market to experience a meaningful correction, we need to see clear signs of defensive rotation—and so far, that hasn’t happened.

In the bond market, U.S. Treasuries are viewed as the defensive play, especially compared to their High Yield counterparts. 

It’s the same concept in equities when you compare Consumer Staples to the broader S&P 500. If the environment favors risk-taking, both Treasuries and Staples should underperform.

Overlaying the Treasuries versus High-Yield ratio (IEI/HYG) with the Staple vs S&P 500 ratio (XLP/SPY), you’ll notice they move in the same direction.

Currently, both are trending lower and making new lows, signaling no defensive positioning from bond or equity investors.

As long as these lines keep trending down and to the right, there’s nothing to worry about for risk assets. But if they start to turn higher, that would be a key warning sign of trouble ahead, potentially...

This chart, hands down, is one of my all time favorites. It tells the entire story.

Bond yields hit their first long term cycle bottom in the 1940s. Then we had the stagflation of the ’70s, followed by the blow off top in 1982. From there, a nearly 40 year downtrend in yields that ended in 2020.

After that, yields have been grinding higher.

Now, if there’s ever going to be a year where bond yields take a breather, it’s probably this one. 

But here’s the thing. In an environment where inflation refuses to back off, any dips in yields are likely to be short lived.

And let me make this crystal clear… just like I’ve been saying for the last five years: Long bond yields are going to have a hard time breaking lower.
 

And as always, be sure to download this week’s Bond Report

 Allstarcharts Team

Find the Winners in Retail’s Report Card. Jeff Macke’s free retail stock report is your key to...

Fed rate cut probabilities are shrinking fast. Just a few months ago, the market was pricing in over 100bps between the 2 year and the Fed funds rate. 

A weaker dollar will drive Bitcoin, gold and silver higher.

The Greenback often dips toward year-end. It’s the usual seasonal pattern.

And this price behavior is even more pronounced in election years. 

If you're living on this planet, credit is everything—it shapes economies and tells us whether we’re in a "risk-on" or "risk-off" environment. 

And there's no better indicator of investor sentiment than the bond market.

With over $140 trillion traded daily, bonds are the largest asset class in the world, spanning all around the globe, from retail investors to governments.

One way we use bonds for information is by analyzing credit spreads as a signal for stress in the market. 

Right now, credit spreads are not warning of elevated risk, they are doing just the opposite. Giving bulls the green light.

Credit spreads are tightening and hitting multi-year highs when comparing junk bonds to treasury bonds.

We’ve overlaid the HYG/IEI ratio with small caps to show how similar the two charts look.

Despite the new highs in HYG/IEI, the S...

Long bonds are sending a message loud and clear these days, and I’m all ears.

When the Fed started cutting rates last month, long-term bonds reversed course lower. They are making fresh 3-month lows this week.

This might seem surprising, but it's not as uncommon as you'd think.

We saw a similar situation in November 2018, when the Fed raised rates, but the bond market didn't buy it, with the TLT rallying for two years.

Now, the Fed is cutting rates, and long bonds are calling their bluff again. This time, by reversing trend lower.

You can see what I mean in the following chart:

If bond prices continue to decline, it likely signals an expectation of rising inflation or stronger economic growth. 

Personally, I’m betting on inflation increasing.

If this is the case, the Fed rate...