Today's number is... 157.93

That’s the new all-time high for my custom Equal-Weight Bellwether Stock Index.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The black line shows our custom Equal-Weight Bellwether Stock Index. It includes major cross-sector leaders, such as Alcoa, Apple, AMD, Amazon, Boeing, Caterpillar, Disney, FedEx, General Electric, General Motors, Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, McDonald’s, Walmart, and Exxon Mobil.

The Takeaway: This index tracks the most important stocks in the market.

These are companies that sit at the center of the US economy.

From tech and energy to healthcare and financials, each name carries equal weight.

No single stock dominates.

It’s a clean read on real leadership.

And these names are the generals.

When they move together, they reflect investor confidence and broad market appetite for risk.

New highs in this group usually signal that the backdrop is strengthening, not weakening.

The index just broke out of its latest base and closed at a fresh high.

It’s been stair-stepping...

Today's number is... 38

38 is how many Golden Crosses — where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day — have triggered in the S&P 500 since 1950. 

The most recent signal was just yesterday.

Here’s the chart and stats table:

Let's break down what the chart and table show:

• The blue and red lines are the 50-day and 200-day moving averages of the S&P 500 Index.
• The gray lines mark each Golden Cross in the S&P 500 since 1950.
• The table displays the average forward returns following all 38 Golden Crosses over the past 75 years. 

The Takeaway: Golden Crosses are a bullish tailwind, not a contrarian fade.

The signal just triggered — not in fear, but in strength. Price is near all-time highs.

They don’t guarantee gains, but they tip the odds meaningfully in favor of higher prices.

Across all 38 signals, the median one-year return is +13.0%, with 81% of outcomes finishing in the green. 

Average returns build steadily over time: 1.2% after 21 days...

Today's number is... 6

We’re 6 months into 2025, and the S&P 500 just closed at an all-time high… up 5.49% YTD.

But under the surface, it’s a very different story.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• Each bubble represents a stock in the S&P 500, plotted by 2025 Year-To-Date performance (y-axis).
• Green bubbles = gain in 2025.
• Red bubbles  = loss in 2025.
• Bubble size = market cap.
• Stocks are grouped by sector (x-axis).

The Takeaway: At the halfway mark, the surface looks strong, but the internals tell a different story. 

Just 222 stocks in the S&P 500 have outperformed the index so far in 2025. That means 281 are lagging behind. 

The average stock is up only 3.95%, well below the index itself. 

This gap highlights narrow leadership, with a small group of large-cap winners doing most of the heavy lifting.

Industrials are packed with winners, led by names like HWM, which is up more than 60% this year. 

In Technology, WDC is one...

Today's number is... 4

That’s how many times the S&P 500 has closed at an all-time high in 2025, with the 4th one coming on Friday.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line is the S&P 500 index daily price.
• The gray vertical lines mark every day the index closed at an all-time high.

The Takeaway: All-time highs tend to freak people out. 

The instinct is to take profits, wait for a pullback, or assume a top is near. 

But history says that’s usually the wrong move.

After hitting a fresh high, the market continues to rise more often than not. One month after an ATH, the S&P is higher about 60% of the time. That jumps to 68% at three months, 73% at six, and 72% after a full year. The median 12-month return is a solid +8.8%.

In other words, a new high isn’t a warning sign.

It’s often a green light. 

Markets don’t top just because they’ve “gone too far.” 

Most major bull runs are powered by strings of fresh highs, not stopped by them....

Today's number is... 6

These are the 6 risk indicators I track for confirmation or divergence of the move in the S&P 500 — and right now, four are confirming the rally while two remain neutral, as the index hovers just 0.05% below its record high.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The top row tracks equity leadership: High Beta vs. Low Volatility, Cyclicals vs. Defensives, and Discretionary vs. Staples.
• The bottom row captures macro and internal confirmation: the Inverted US Dollar, the Advance-Decline Line, and High-Yield vs. Treasury Bonds.

The Takeaway: These 6 charts track the tug-of-war between offense and defense. Together, they show where money is flowing — and whether this rally is built on broad support or narrow leadership.

4 out of 6 signals are in clear confirmation mode, lending strong support to the S&P 500’s climb. 

High Beta stocks and Cyclicals are leading the charge — a textbook sign of risk-on behavior. 

Market breadth is strong, with the Advance-Decline Line...

Today's number is... 8

That’s a new 8-month high for my custom Risk-On Index — and it just broke above a key trendline.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The green line in the top panel is my custom Risk-On Index.
• The red line in the bottom panel is my custom Risk-Off Index.

The Takeaway:The Risk-On Index is a clean gauge of risk appetite that blends key assets like copper, high-yield bonds, the Aussie dollar, semiconductors, and high beta. 

And right now, it’s sending a clear message — buyers are getting aggressive.

Meanwhile, the Risk-Off Index is heading in the opposite direction. After failing to hold above a key support and resistance level, it’s rolling over again — but hasn’t yet broken below its own trendline.

Together, they signal a clear shift in positioning: away from defense and back toward risk.

The last time we saw this kind of dual confirmation was late 2022. That marked the start of a brand new bull market in equities. 

So, if the Risk-Off Index confirms with a...

Today's number is... 86

It took just 86 trading days for the Nasdaq 100 to shake off its latest 23% slide and punch out a new all-time high yesterday.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel shows the Nasdaq 100 with each all-time high marked by the blue step line.
• The red line in the bottom panel tracks drawdowns from all-time highs.

The Takeaway: Since 1990, the Nasdaq 100 has experienced seven major drawdowns where it fell more than 20% from its highs. The latest drop — a 23% slide from February to April — now ranks as the third-fastest recovery on record.

Only two rebounds were quicker: the Covid crash in 2020, which took just 75 trading days to reclaim its highs, and the 1998 correction, which took 80.

This one took 86.

That puts the 2025 recovery well ahead of the 2018 selloff, the early-90s recession, and the 2021–23 decline. 

And it’s in another league entirely from the post-2000 collapse, which took nearly 4,000...

Today's number is... 416

There have been 416 consecutive trading days the 50-day average has been above the 200-day average in the High Momentum vs. Low Momentum ratio.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel is the relative ratio of the Dow Jones US High Momentum Index versus the Dow Jones US Low Momentum Index.
• The black line in the bottom panel is the number of consecutive days the 50-day moving average is greater than the 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: This is a clean, consistent trend — and one that’s gaining strength.

This ratio measures how high momentum stocks are performing relative to low momentum stocks. 

In short, it tracks whether the market is favoring leaders or laggards.

Right now, it’s all about the leaders.

The ratio has been in a steady uptrend since early 2023, carving out higher highs through orderly consolidations, and is now breaking out to fresh all-time highs with no signs of fatigue.

...

Today's number is... 26

June 26 ranks as the fifth-worst trading day of the year for the S&P 500 since 1950. And this year, it lands on this coming Thursday.

Here’s the table:

Let's break down what the table shows:

This table tracks the S&P 500’s average daily return for each day of the year from 1950 to 2024. Each row reflects how the index typically performs on that calendar date, averaged across more than 70 years.

The Takeaway: June 26 stands out with an average return of –0.29%, placing it firmly among the market’s biggest seasonal potholes.

But it’s not just one bad day.

It’s part of a broader stretch of trouble. From June 18 to June 27, nearly every day has posted a negative average return. 

It’s one of the most consistently weak windows on the calendar.

It’s a rare cluster of red that’s held up across decades.

And this year, the pattern may already be in motion. From June 18 to 20, the S&P 500 has already slipped by 0.25%, hinting that seasonal headwinds are starting to emerge.

Seasonality doesn’t move markets...

Today's number is... 13.44%

13.44% is the annualized return of the S&P GSCI Commodity Index when the 10-day moving average of its 40-day percent change is above the 120-day 

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:  

• The candlesticks in the top panel show the S&P GSCI Commodity Index price.
• The middle panel plots the 40-day percent change with 10-day (blue) and 120-day (orange) moving averages.
• The black line in the bottom panel shows the spread between those two MAs.
• Grey shading highlights periods when the 10-day average is above the 120-day.

The Takeaway: This tactical model doesn’t just track price.

It tracks the trend in momentum.

By smoothing the 40-day rate of change in the index, it identifies when strength is building or fading. 

When the 10-day average is above the 120-day, the model turns bullish. When it slips below, the model turns bearish.

When the momentum trend is...

Today's number is... 25

It’s taken 25 years for the Russell 1000 vs. Russell 2000 ratio to return to its 2000 peak.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows: 

• The black line is the relative ratio of the Russell 1000 IWB versus the Russell 2000 IWM Index.

The Takeaway: 25 years in the making — this is a key test for market leadership.

The large-caps vs. small-caps chart has been carving out a massive base for a quarter century.

Now, it’s pressing up against resistance not seen since the dot-com era.

Why does it matter?

Because major leadership transitions often start with relative breakouts or rejections like this.

So what now?

If the ratio breaks out, large-caps tighten their grip.

Mega-caps extend their dominance, breadth stays narrow, and passive flows keep rewarding size.

In other words, the market keeps leaning into what’s already worked.

Or

If it rolls over, small-caps could finally take the lead.

That would hint at a risk-on rotation into underowned, overlooked parts of...

Today's number is... 4

There are 4 S&P 500 sectors that now have their 50-day moving average above their 200-day moving average.

The latest? Communication Services.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows: 

• The candlesticks show the price of the S&P 500 Communication Services Index.
• The blue line is the 50-day moving average.
• The red line is the 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: The Communication Services sector doesn’t just matter — it’s home to some of the biggest stocks on the planet: Meta, Alphabet, Netflix. 

When it turns, the market feels it.

Its 50-day moving average just crossed back above its 200-day moving average.

A bullish signal some call a golden cross. 

Not a timing tool by itself, but a sign that trend conditions are improving.

Only three other sectors are in the same camp — and they’re all near highs.

These four sectors sit just 3.0% off their 52-week highs on average.

The rest? ...