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The Strazza Letter

It's Hurricane Season

September 4, 2024

We had just stepped onto the tee box at the 18th hole a couple of days ago when it started to sprinkle.

Were it January we might have said, “Hey, let’s just finish the round, maybe we get a little wet…”

Not this time of year. The sky was turning. We felt the water. The only responsible thing to do was head for the clubhouse.

Clouds burst open right as we got there. Had we tried to finish the round we would’ve been soaked.

It’s hurricane season in Florida. This time of year, when it rains, it pours.

And it’s volatile. Often you don’t know when the rain is coming. Meteorologists do the best they can. But these storm systems move fast and defy forecasting.

All we can do is seek shelter when we see it coming.

It reminds me a lot of the current market environment. Selling pressure and volatility have really picked up since July.

We’ll talk more about it on Thursday at 11 a.m. ET during the Breakout Multiplier...

The Strazza Letter

Direction Over Volatility

August 16, 2024

They tell me “volatility got crushed.” 

If not for all the commentary surrounding the historic rise and fall in the VIX, I wouldn’t have known about it.

The volatility index is simply not a part of my daily chart review. It’s not that important to me.

With the launch of our new breakout multiplier service, I’m finding this comes as a surprise to people.

The strategy is basically to get long calls or puts and bet on big directional moves.

What this means is that we will ALWAYS BE LONG VOLATILITY. 

Even when the VIX spikes to its highest level in years. We are buyers of volatility and the way I see it, we are simply price-takers.

If vol is high, well maybe there is a good reason for it.

As market technicians, we know the market is not efficient, but we also don’t second guess the way it prices things.

My mentor Brian Shannon taught me that “only price pays.” There is nothing more true in the market.

Imagine a technician looked at a...